2009 New York Yankees Season Preview

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, cats and dogs, it's that time of year. Time to dig out your commemorative 2008 Final Season t-shirt you already regret paying $29.99 for, practice your "I'm not a bandwagon fan; I swear" mantra, spruce up your "Mariano Rivera for President" fanpage, and get used to hearing the phrase "It's a marathon, not a sprint" again because it's time for...

Yankee baseball!

Ah, April. The fresh smell of snow is in the air and baseball is being played every day again, all over the country (and Toronto, which might as well be in America, anyway). So what if your team has to play the first two months of the season in ski masks and parkas? It's baseball, darnitall, and the Yankees have a brand-spanking-new ballpark to go along with their upgraded rotation and slightly-less-evident aging lineup. Let's take a look at the Yankees' major moves this offseason:

CC Sabathia (acquisition): For the largest pitcher contract in baseball history, the Yankees better have gotten a lifetime 3.66 ERA (one that has gotten lower in every year of his career but one) , a 117-73 record, and a 1.24 WHIP. But beyond CC's immediate stats is an absolute workhorse. The 2007 AL Cy Young winner squeaked past Beckett, Halladay, and Matsuzaka on sheer innings pitched alone. Anecdotal evidence tells us that the big lefty is willing to put the good of his team over that of his wallet--he gutted it out in late September for the Brewers, much to the chagrin of his agents, who would much rather he rest his arm--and word out of Tampa tells us he's gotten along famously with his new team. Bottom line: If his arm remains attached, CC will be a huge part of the Yankees' road to their 27th championship.

A.J. Burnett (acquisition): Yankee fans were a bit confused and concerned when their team signed the oft-injured fireballer, and to a five-year deal, no less. But, if healthy, Burnett could be exactly what the team physician ordered.* Burnett's career strikeouts-per-nine-innings (including injury-plagued seasons) is a shade under nine, a nice reprieve for a team that doesn't exactly boast a strong defense. Despite his injuries, Burnett still has a 3.81 career ERA and, if his healthy 2008 campaign has showed us anything, it's that AJ can log innings when not held back: 221, to be precise, a career-high. Bottom line: AJ had a career year at exactly the right time. Now, the Yankees need him to match or exceed that while staying healthy. If he can do this, he, and by extension, the Yankees' rotation, will be very formidable.

*Get it? Because he's always on the DL? Man, rough crowd.


Mark Teixeira (acquisition): If CC Sabathia were the grand prize of the 2008 free agent class, then Mark Teixeira was a nice consolation. 29 years old by the time the Yankees open their new stadium, the boy who grew up a Don Mattingly fan grew up to be a consistent switch-hitter (100 RBI, 30 HR in each of his last 5 seasons) whose numbers will virtually replace the steady Bobby Abreu's, with a slick glove. Considering the Yankees ran Jason Giambi out at first base 113 games last year, Tex's fielding will be a dramatic upgrade for the entire team. But perhaps the biggest strength that Teixeira brings to the Yankees is his on-base percentage. The first baseman reached base safely in over 41% of his plate appearances in 2008, which was a near-60 point difference from the 2008 Yankees' mark of .342. If Teixeira hits in front of such run-producers as Alex Rodriguez, Hideki Matsui, and Jorge Posada, his on-base percentage should generate additional, much-needed offense for a lineup that was 7th in the AL in 2008. Bottom line: Not since 1995 have the Yankees had such a consistent all-around first baseman.

Andy Pettitte (acquisiton): Andy Pettitte and the Yankees did a little dance all off-season before the Yankees re-signed the franchise lefty. Ultimately, Pettitte stayed a Yankee and the team kept their steady veteran presence. In Pettitte, the Yankees retained a true gamer--what other pitcher could have a career 9.5 hits/9 innings allowed and still maintain a 3.89 ERA--a winner; and, by all accounts; a great teammate. Andy's 2008 season was marred by his admission of HGH use, which, by his admission, threw off his pre-season workouts, and may have contributed to his shoulder discomfort down the stretch. At times during 2008, Pettitte appeared fatigued in middle innings. With no apparent shoulder pain thus far in spring training, Andy and the Yankees look ready to roll. Bottom line: The Yankees arguably needed to re-sign Pettitte. He will provide a solid veteran presence and act as a mentor to the newer pitchers while maintaining his consistent numbers.

Bobby Abreu (loss--free agency): Bobby is considered by many to be a complete ballplayer--almost. He's an exceptional four-tool player, with consistent all-star-type numbers in RBIs, runs scored, on-base percentage, batting average, doubles, and steals over the past eight years. He has a gun for an arm, perfect for right field. Unfortunately, Bobby's one weakness is his fielding. Having shown a reluctance to dive, leap, jump, or otherwise move anywhere near the path of the ball has kept Bobby healthy, but cost his teams runs. With Xavier Nady a defensive upgrade and Mark Teixeira almost duplicating his numbers, the Yankees no longer had a need for the clubhouse favorite.His offensive production (and, aw shucks, his smile) will no doubt be missed, but in a league that is growing progressively more defensive-minded, the Yankees couldn't afford to give away runs any longer.

Mike Mussina (retired): There's not much to say about The Moose--a consummate professional who defied baseball logic and tradition by bouncing back from almost certain decline to have one of the best years of his career, only to retire 30 wins shy of 300. The Yankees will certainly miss his crafty gamesmanship and his still-lively 87mph fastball, but more than that, baseball has lost one of the greatest pitchers of this--or any-- generation. Farewell, Moose. Enjoy your retirement. You've certainly earned it.


Now that we've examined 3/5 of the rotation that many say will be the best in baseball in 2009, let's take a look at the rotation as a whole, and our two remaining pitchers. This is the projected 2009 rotation:

1. CC Sabathia An innings-burner who works efficiently and can get outs in several ways. Three "plus pitches."
2. Chien-Ming Wang Former Yankees ace. Steady and unrattled. Finesse pitcher with velocity. Has a turbo-sinker, splitter, change-up, and developing slider. Excellent BB/9 ratio.
3. A.J. Burnett Strikeout pitcher with a high-velocity fastball. Also throws a decent curveball. Needs to stay healthy.
4. Andy Pettitte Crafty. High hits/9 ratio but induces ground balls and pitches best with runners on base. Superior pickoff move. Throws a four-five pitches. Features a cutter.
5. Joba Chamberlain High velocity strikeout pitcher. Four pitch arsenal featuring a slider. Throws too many pitches. Control declines when pitching more than one inning.

If this solid rotation stays healthy, the Yankees are looking at, by pitching alone, several additional wins over a 2008 season that saw Darrell Rasner, Dan Giese, Kei Igawa, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Sidney Ponson make at least one start each. All five of the starters, but especially Burnett, Pettitte, and Chamberlain possess the ability to rack up strikeouts, which will help the Yankees' defense, which has declined in the past few years. In addition, Girardi and the front office have increased rotation depth, which will allow for a short-term injury or two to the starting rotation without too much ground lost. Pitchers like Brett Tomko, Alfredo Aceves, Hughes, and Kennedy await in AAA Scranton Wilkes-Barre in the event of an open start. That kind of depth wasn't present in 2008, which left the Yankees scrambling for pitchers and most likely lost them enough games to miss the post-season.

The second component to the Yankees' October hopes is the lineup. We've outlined most of the major additions and subtractions. The Yankees also acquired Nick Swisher from the White Sox for the much-maligned Wilson "Better Man" Betemit. Swisher is a power hitter and an OBP guy who strikes out a lot. He's a decent corner oufielder and first baseman but doesn't have the range to play centerfield. The Yankees will need the depth he brings to the lineup and the field because Hideki Matsui won't be playing left field until at least June. Swisher will, then, back up Nady, Damon, and Teixeira. What Swisher brings to the team, besides a patient eye and a power stroke is his clubhouse presence. Reports from spring training tell us he's an easy-going guy who doesn't like taking life or baseball too seriously. He's been responsible for most of the clubhouse music this spring and, hey, you can follow him on Twitter!

Joe Girardi's dream lineup has been marred a bit by the hip labrum tear of everyone's favorite mirror-kissing, Kabbalah-bracelet-wearing, masher, Alex Rodriguez. As of this writing, reports are that Alex should be back by around April 25th. That means that the Yankees are looking at about 3 weeks of Cody Ransom at third base. When Rodriguez missed three week in 2008 with a quadriceps strain, the Yankee offense floundered. Thin and exposed, run production dropped dramatically. Bobby Abreu saw fewer fastballs and started pressing and the middle of the lineup collapsed around the already-weak ends of it. The hope this season is that the starting pitching will pick up the offense until Rodriguez can return. Well, that and the assumption that Cody Ransom will be an upgrade from Morgan Ensberg and Alberto Gonalez (the Washington National, not the former attorney general).

Let's examine two different versions of the lineup, then. With Mr. Personality and without:

Opening Day lineup:

1. SS Derek Jeter R/R: Hits for high average and diminished power. Should hit 10 jacks or so this year. Hits primarily to right field due to "famous" inside-out swing. Astronomical OBP. Poor ground ball/fly ball ratio the past two seasons led to hitting into 45 double plays. Switching to leadoff should help this. Had a sub-par 2008 speculatively due to hand injuries from leaning in to every single pitch. Look for his numbers to improve this year. Defensively has lost some range, according to "experts," but was probably overrated to begin with. Anticipates and positions well to make up for some lost range. Will still make highlight-reel plays. Intangibles.
2. LF Johnny Damon L/L: Hits to all fields with a quick bat. Some power to right. Key to his play will be the health of his legs. When healthy can still steal bases. Has a very good OBP and sees a lot of pitches. Defensively covers a lot of ground and isn't afraid to give up his body for a play. Terrible arm but has the luxury of throwing to strong cutoffs.
3. 1B Mark Teixeira S/R: Hits for average and power (solid .300/30hr hitter). Better power numbers from the left side of the plate. Phenomenal OBP. Gets off to a slow start, traditionally, so the Yankees will need him to buck that trend. Above-average first baseman. Covers a lot of ground and has quick reflexes.
4. DH Hideki Matsui L/R: Solid capable pull hitter. Hits for power and average. Patient at the plate. Professional hitter. Calm and steady. Can be prone to slumps due to his tendency to bail out of the batter's box. Has been slowed down by knee injuries but, when healthy, has average speed and is a very smart baserunner. Has limited range in the outfield but unloads the ball quickly. Weak arm.
5. C Jorge Posada S/R: Switch-hitter with no weak side. Hits for power over average but had a great 2007 campaign at .338. Pole-to-pole hitter that finds the gaps. Decent OBP with high BB rate. Does strike out a lot. Question marks remain about surgically-repaired shoulder. Wasn't among the league's elite in throwing out runners before surgery but makes up for arm accuracy with his bat. Has gotten better at blocking the plate in recent years. Vocal clubhouse leader. Below-average speed but baserunning smarts.
6. 2B Robinson Cano L/R: Hits for average but will smack 40+ doubles. Pole-to-pole hitter. Sweet level swing. Needs to work on his approach at the plate. Impatient but with an ability to hit bad balls that drives his average down. Has changed batting stance since July 2008 with positive results. Potential to hit 25 HRs perennially. Low strike-out rate but low OBP, as well. Gets off to a slow start and has trouble recovering. Great range defensively but is criticized for effortless plays as being "lazy." Power arm. Average speed with mediocre baserunning sense. Needs to keep weight down to maintain his position at 2B. Is poised for a bounce-back year.
7. RF Xavier Nady R/R: Unproven American Leaguer. Hits for some power and doubles down the lines and finds the gaps. High leg kick. Strikes out a lot. Hits hot/cold. If he can maintain the consistency he showed in Pittsburgh, will be very successful. Quiet, steady player. Above-average corner outfielder but not flashy. Average runner.
8. 3B Cody Ransom R/R: Hits for surprising power and drives the ball to the wall. Mainly pull hitter. Unexposed as of yet due to lack of MLB experience. Should be a nice short-term threat at the bottom of the lineup. Is vulnerable to strikeouts. Excellent athletic skills and plays all four infield positions. Above-average runner with excellent baserunning sense.
9. CF Brett Gardner L/L*: Best part of his game is his speed. Has adjusted his batting stance to drive the ball better. Hits up the middle. Doesn't hit with much power but is always a doubles threat due to speed. Improved bunter. Doesn't walk much yet. Needs to improve his OBP. Weak arm but charges the ball and can cover a lot of ground. Unproven MLBer.

*This blogger is an unabashed Melky Cabrera fan and is very bitter but tried to give Gardner a fair "scouting report" despite her animosity.


Bench

CF Melky Cabrera S/L: Stronger from the left side. Hits to all fields. Potential for some power but hits better when not hitting home runs. Has improved patience at the plate and now draws more walks. Nice winter baseball/spring training showing. Very wide stance. Tendency to get hung up on inside pitches. Finds gaps and hits down both lines. Above-average baserunner. Plays hard. Tends to take bad routes to balls but will make highlight-reel plays. Gives body up for the ball. Excellent arm.
1B/LF/RF Nick Swisher S/L: See above
C Jose Molina R/R: Doesn't really hit for power or average but can still hit MLB pitching and can be an offense surprise. Hits best when not playing every day. Mostly hits to right field. Strikes out a lot. Superior defensive catcher. Led league in percentage of runner gunned down in 2008. Excellent snap throw. Great pitcher's catcher. Easy-going, good clubhouse presence. Very poor speed. Can't go first to third on a single.
IF Ramiro Pena S/R: Young unproven player with no MLB experience. Slick fielder with great range. Can play all four infield positions. Small traditional shortstop build. Can find the gaps offensively. Above-average speed.

Every day lineup:

1. Derek Jeter
2. Johnny Damon
3. Mark Teixeira
4. 3B Alex Rodriguez R/R: Classic five-tool player. Hits for power and average. Superior OBP. Tends to strike out a lot, especially when feeling on-field pressure. Has shown an ability to ignore off-field distractions. Hits to all fields but exhibits most power to left. Above-average speed and baserunning smarts. Power arm. Above-average range at third base and superior reflexes.
5. Hideki Matsui
6. Jorge Posada
7. Robinson Cano
8. Xavier Nady
9. Brett Gardner


The biggest keys to the 2009 lineup will be the ability of Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada, and Robinson Cano to hit with consistency and support the top four. The health of the first two are absolutely essential. If the aforementioned players can be solid contributors and Gardner (or Cabrera, ahem) can hit at least .265-.270 and can be on base 35% of the time, this lineup should average close to six runs as game. They certainly have the pieces of the puzzle with Rodriguez back.

The final piece of the October puzzle: The Bullpen

Since most bullpens are in flux for the majority of the season, this will be a short overview. Any remark about the Yankees' bullpen begins and ends with Mariano Rivera. The 40-year old closer was inhuman yet again in 2008, posting a 1.40 ERA and a 0.665 WHIP, a career-best. In an era when the life of a closer averages four year, Rivera is going on his 13th season as the Yankees'. Assuming that the improved rotation offers Rivera the opportunity to save over 40 games, he may be looking at his most valuable season yet. Here are the men who will help afford him those save opportunities:

Jose Veras RHP: Max effort pitcher. Mid-90s fastball and supplementary slider. Needs to work on control
Damaso Marte LHP: Looking to bounce back from shoulder issues. Left-handed complement to Veras, with similar pitching style.
Brian Bruney RHP: Strikeout pitcher with high-velocity fastball and a nice slider. Has improved control but still needs to work on it.
Phil Coke LHP: Can pitch to one batter or up to two-three innings. Has multiple pitches and starter potential. Had breakout in 2008 after almost being included in trade for Nady and Marte
Jon Albaladejo RHP: Has looked impressive in early 2008 and 2009 spring training. Was sidelined in early 2008 due to elbow injury. Looks to be in command of a nice-looking fastball.
Edwar Ramirez RHP: Plus changeup that he uses for strikeouts. Nice disparity in velocity between fastball and changeup. Can be suceptible to giving up home runs due to hanging the changeup. Uses good deception when throwing breaking ball.


And that, dear readers, after much exhausting, quantitative and qualitative analysis, is your 2009 New York Yankees. While no one has a crystal ball (because, really, who would have thought that one harrowing weekend last year would have been spent praying for Chad Moeller to clear waivers), the 2009 Yankees look solid, with plenty of depth on both the roster and in the farm system. If everything shakes out like it looks on paper, the Yankees will get a healthy diet of solid starting pitching, a productive lineup, and a seamless bullpen. This is a combination that could see them bringing a brand new World Series trophy to their brand new stadium.

Prediction: 98-64