New York Yankees 2008 Season Preview.

If you look quickly, just take a glance, it would be easy to mistake this for last August. Yes, I'm aware there's snow on the ground. No, I'm not suggesting you use your vacation time to head down the Shore. But, at 161st Street and River Ave, things are looking quite familiar. In fact, with the exception of three or four changes, the Yankees will open the 2008 season with a roster that's eerily identical to the one with which they opened the 2007 playoffs.

Some baseball pundits will tell you that this is a handicap to success--bringing back an identical team to one that had to gain playoff access as the wild card and was eliminated in the first round. But the same factors they're overlooking (missing, ignoring, or flat-out choosing to disregard) are the ones that should have Yankee fans smiling.

This is the same roster that overcame a series of pitching injuries and a bizarre collective slump by its left-handed hitters to win 51 games in the second half, putting together an almost unfathomable run against both weak and formidable teams. In that second half, 35 of those wins were started by the projected 2008 rotation. Conversely, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy, integral cogs to the 2008 Yankees' success were all elsewhere during the first-half slump. Instead, games were started by Chase Wright, Tyler Clippard, Matt DeSalvo, and, the most expensive minor leaguer in all of baseball, Kei Igawa.

Gone are the injuries to key contributers Chien-Ming Wang, Jason Giambi, and Mike Mussina--who, we later found out, battled a series of injuries, including one to his push-off leg, which may have contributed to his very sub-par season. Thanks to a stern warning from Brian Cashman and the promise of a cardio-heavy spring camp from a new manager who could probably still suit up and crouch behind the plate, last season's first-half slumpers Johnny Damon and Bobby Abreu came into camp in shape and ready to play. And if they can even come close to replicating their second half stats, this is the lineup that opposing pitchers will have to face:

2007 Second-Half Stats:

Johnny Damon, LF/CF/DH: Avg: .296/OBP: .364/SLG: .450/OPS: .814
Derek Jeter, SS: .306/.364/.440/.803
Bobby Abreu, RF: .305/.390/.528/.918
Alex Rodriguez, 3B: .312/.434/.624/1.058
Hideki Matsui, LF/DH: .298/.377/.515/.891
Jorge Posada, C: .355/.463/.598/1.061
Robinson Cano, 2B: .343/.396/.557/.953
Jason Giambi, 1B/DH: .200/.323/.429/.751
Shelley Duncan, 1B/RF/DH: .257/.329/.554/.883
Melky Cabrera CF: .271/.324/.396/.720

For the most part, that's one of the best, if not the best lineups in baseball, and one that won at a .667 clip from July-October. Of course, there will be ups and downs. Expect Posada and Rodriguez to experience dips in their numbers, but look for Giambi, Abreu, Cano, and Cabrera to see increases in theirs. This returning lineup led the major league in hitting for average and runs scored in 2007, and led the American League in home runs. Not only that, but they could play small ball: they were fourth in the league in steals and third in sac hits.

Still concerned about 2008?

Okay, there may be a few reasons to be.

The pitching staff, as it has in recent memory, has the potential to be shaky. This year, fans have the luxury of something new to worry about: two of the five rotation slots are being filled full-time by pitchers with a collective 92 innings of major league pitching under their belts. True, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy are highly touted young pitchers with big league-caliber stuff and plus pitches, but they're largely untested and will, undoubtedly, hit some roadblocks along the way. Joining them in the rotation is Mike Mussina, coming off the worst year of his career and, in the process, losing the faith of many in his ability to be an effective pitcher again. Even the Yankees' top two starters aren't impervious to scrutiny: Andy Pettitte had a tumultuous off-season with his inclusion in the Mitchell Report and the Congressional hearings surrounding his former friend, and Chien-Ming Wang has had a shaky spring following his abysmal postseason performance.

The bullpen, a perennial thorn in Torre's side, and something he's been criticized for failing to manage effectively, hasn't improved much, at least on paper. LaTroy Hawkins was a nice offseason acquisition, but he's battled control issues and has bounced around from club to club over the last decade. The back end of the bullpen appears as formidable as it was late last summer, with phenom Joba Chamberlain and his wicked slider setting up for Mariano Rivera, who should return to form after a rough April last year inflated his ERA. Kyle Farnsworth, the fireball-throwing righty, has been somewhat of a disappointment since coming off a career year to sign with the Yankees in 2006, and the odds and ends rounding out the bullpen (Jon Albaladejo, Brian Bruney, Ross Ohlendorf, and lefty specialist Billy Traber) have yet to inflict fear in the hearts of hitters. It wouldn't be much of a stretch to say the Yankees could see their pitching staff falter throughout the year.

However, the odds of most of the staff struggling at the same time are slim, and Yankee fans certainly have reason to be optimistic. All five starters have ended the spring with strong outings, showing an ability to make adjustments in-game to tweak flaws and keep the team in games until the offense has a chance to catch up. With Kennedy and his estimated innings limit of 195, the rotation will be able to go deeper in games than many realize. As for the other rotation question marks, Mussina appears to be healthier than he was last year, shedding the injuries that affected his delivery and may have led to his removal from the rotation in last August. Pettitte, for his part, has been a consistent "gamer" throughout his career. He's built a reputation as a "stopper," exhibiting mental toughness that has allowed him to escape countless bases-loaded-no-one-out jams, and to deliver brilliant pitching performances under pressure. Don't believe me? Track down a broadcast of Game 5 of the 1996 World Series.


The bullpen has, by and large, looked sharp, this spring, with Kyle Farnsworth pitching in a contract year and already impressing with his short, compact pitching motion and ability to move his fastball around the plate and throw a devastating slider. Part of any success Farnsworth has (and it's not a stretch to assume he will experience it--he's shown he can be lights-out) may be tied to his good relationship with Joe Girardi, with whom he played in Chicago and built a rapport. Both Farnsworth and Girardi credit the new Yankee manager with improving both Kyle's mechanics and his outlook on the game when they were Cubs, and Girardi has already expressed his belief in Farnsworth and his ability to be the pitcher he can be. If Farnsworth proves Girardi (and himself) right, and Hawkins can replicate the under-4.o0 ERA he showcased in Colorado last year, the untested portion of the Yankees bullpen, with almost-major league ready call-ups waiting in Scranton, should be able to fill in the gaps and form a successful 'pen.

As I said, Yankee fans have many reasons to smile going into the 2008 season. Here are five of them--factors that should have those who cheer for the Bombers very excited:

1. Dave Eiland: The former Yankee pitcher joined the coaching staff last September, to accompany the call-ups to the Bronx. Having worked closely with Hughes, Kennedy, and Chamberlain, as well as the other minor league pitchers, the Yankees assumed Eiland would be an asset to a club intent on building young pitching from within. They assumed correctly. The new pitching coach--he usurped a somewhat ineffective but lovable Ron Guidry to land a the job--has already shown a magician-like ability to identify and fix a variety of mechanical flaws, often in-game. The young pitchers trust him implicitly, and Yankee fans should, too. When Hughes and Co. succeed in the Bronx, look at Eiland, because he'll be partially responsible.

2. Health: Unlike last April, which Pettitte described as "four rookies and me" in the rotation, the Yankees appear to be starting the season healthy. After a back spasm scare, Pettitte is in line to pitch the first time through the rotation. As for the position players, Abreu and Damon, who both came in to last year's spring training out of shape, are healthy and fit and ready to start the season. Jason Giambi, sidelined for most of the year with a variety of foot and leg injuies, has lost weight and looks toned. The Big G has even shown some giddy-up in his step, going from first to third on singles and spraying the ball around the field. With a healthy roster, the Yankees should be at their second-half form, and we've already seen what the players in that state can do.

3. Youth: The importance of the young pitchers has been rehashed ad infinitum, but it's a point that can't be stressed enough. All three have the "stuff" to be very successful, and most likely at least one will find that kind of success this year. Beyond pitching lines, however, will be the energy they bring to the clubhouse. Veterans have already commented on the positive energy surrounding the team, with much of it coming from the wry young pitchers. Ian and Phil, in fact, have already bonded with the notoriously reserved and withheld Mussina.
The Yankees' youth movement isn't limited to pitchers, either. Robinson Cano, who just signed a four-year deal with the club, has already proven himself to be a formidable hitter, finishing just shy of the batting title in 2006 and exhibiting plenty of gap power and a versatile but steady swing. He's projected by many to hit 25 home runs and battle for another batting title in the very near future. His best friend, Melky Cabrera, should hit a solid .280-.290, logged 16 outfield assists last year, and was fifth in the league in sac hits. Cabrera, in particular, has become close to Alex Rodriguez, causing the superstar to light up when discussing their morning workouts with Cano. Cabrera and Cano also coined the phrase "energy," that gets shouted in the clubhouse and dugout to pump up the team and celebrate successes.

4. Chemistry: Bringing back the same team that gelled into the unstoppable force they became down the stretch last year means continued positive chemistry. Gone are players who would have rather been anywhere else than the House that Ruth Built. No more Randy Johnson, Gary Sheffield. In their place are players who can't imagine playing for anyone else now. Bobby Abreu and Jose Molina both professed their love for the pinstripes last season and into the winter, and both were rewarded with contracts. Several players commented last season on the positive feelings in the clubhouse. If there is one intangible that statisticians will concede, it's invariably team chemistry. The 2008 Yankees have that in spades.

5. The Red Sox's Mortality: While this year's trend seems to be picking the Red Sox to win the East, the team is not without its serious question marks, some of them similar to the Yankees' concerns. The Sox, too, are relying on young starters. One of them, Clay Buchholz, he of the no-hitter, has a 10+ spring training era. While little concern should be placed on spring training results, this isn't anything to make Red Sox fans cheer. Their steady veteran, Curt Schilling, will be out until the All Star Break, at the latest, and their ace, whom, incidentally, has never had back-to-back good seasons, has been battling back spasms all spring. Couple this with a lineup that won't come close to matching the Yankees' in run production, and you have the recipe for a sure division winner, right?


Prediction: Yankees 97-65. 1st East